According to NOAA, the year-to-date period (January-August) has been the 2nd-warmest on record for the globe, running just 0.11°C (0.20°F) shy of tying the record set last year (January–August 2024). Based on statistical patterns drawn from prior monthly and annual data, NOAA is giving this year a less-than-1% chance of winding up as the warmest year on record, but a greater-than-99% chance of being among the top-five warmest years. The European Copernicus Climate Change Service also finds that 2024 is the 2nd-warmest year in its database, which goes back to 1979.
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