Humberto went through an eyewall replacement cycle on Friday night, but it came through the process – which can often dent a hurricane’s strength by as much as a Saffir-Simpson category – largely unscathed. The surrounding environment remains very supportive, so there’s every sign that Humberto could get one more solid burst of intensification over the weekend, and it wouldn’t take much to propel it to Cat 5 strength. The 12Z Saturday runs of NOAA’s HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B intensity models all push Humberto into that rarefied Cat 5 range by Sunday, as does the 11 a.m. EDT Saturday forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Beyond that point, one or more additional eyewall replacements could occur, leading to some strength fluctuations. Wind shear may increase above 20 knots (23 mph) by Monday as Humberto embarks on a classic recurvature path that’s predicted to take it west of Bermuda. Only a small rightward path nudge could bring considerably more impact, and there’s enough spread in the ensemble model forecasts (see Fig. 2 below) to make it wise for Bermudans to prepare accordingly. On the current forecast track from NHC, at least tropical-storm-strength winds will be likely in Bermuda (see Fig. 2 below).
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